Chipper Jones is a Hall of Famer Right Now September 18, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.add a comment
“If I back up this year with the same kind of year next year, I don’t want to play the game. The game is not fun to me when I’m not playing up to my standards.” Those were the words of Chipper Jones just the other day.
Jones has had a tough time staying healthy the past six seasons. And while he has performed very well in each of those six seasons –this season is not as awful as some might think– he may retire after next season if he cannot return to what he considers his norm. So, the question that comes to mind when a great player like Chipper Jones utters the word retirement is: is he a hall of famer? I say yes, and on the first ballot.
Among switch hitters, Jones ranks third all-time in homers with 424, second in AVG at .308, fourth in OBP at .407, fourth in SLG at .542, third in OPS at .949, fifth in doubles with 469, fourth in total bases at 4208, fourth in walks at 1331 (only two behind Eddie Murray who is third), and third in OPS+ at 143.
His career numbers, switch-hitter or not, should be enough to get him in the hall anyway. On top of the numbers listed above, Jones also has 142 steals, more walks than strikeouts (1331/1219), 3741 times on base, 1438 RBI, 1448 runs scored, a wOBA of .404, and a postseason line of .288/.411/.459 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 8 steals, and a 72/60 BB/K rate in 333 at-bats. Jones also won an MVP award (1999) and finished in the top 12 eight other times. Oh, and he was an above-average defender for his career.
There is no doubt in my mind that Jones is a first-ballot hall of famer. He has the credentials, he has been an iconic figure in his generation, and his name was clean in an era when steroids and HGH ruled the headlines. The best part is that Jones will continue to climb the leaderboards when he plays next season and possibly beyond. It will be a sad day the day Jones walks off the field for good but bet on seeing him give a speech at Cooperstown five years after he hangs up his cleats for good.
College Update – Houston, ACC, ‘Cuse, and more September 14, 2009
Posted by Kevin in College, Football.5 comments
Week 2 of College Football 2009 is in the books. Here are some points you may not find in the headlines of major sports news outlets:
Syracuse has been relatively impressive
The Orange were one bad decision by newcomer Greg Paulus away from a win over a decent Big Ten team – Minnesota. They don’t have the win for this one, but the game was theirs. They also held #7 Penn State to under 30 and managed to get 7 on the board. Not quite the blowout you’d expect from PSU vs bottom-of-the-Big-East-barrel Syracuse. Big names facing the Orange later in the season need to be on upset alert.
The ACC is a mess
… For now. Now, this could be a “good” mess in that competition is spread throughout the conference, or a bad mess, in that this is truly an underacheiving conference, but here are the key points to pay attention to; The football Gods must be ACC fans because both UNC, FSU, Maryland and Georgia Tech won by 3 or less (FSU and Maryland against FCS teams). The nonconference record has been unimpressive with losses to South Carolina, Baylor, and a couple of FCS teams. Let me clarify this conference is not awful, but certainly looks a little lost right now.
Expect the upset
Every year you get your fair share of upsets, but this year seems to be a little more volatile than usual, and especially since it’s all right off the bat. We’ve seen big wins by BYU, CMU, Miami, and Houston, and that’s just 2 weeks (Should I mention Michigan’s win here too?). This is also the year to respect the non-BCS conference teams. I don’t even have to mention Boise State, TCU, BYU, or Utah to make this point, with Toledo hanging 50+ on Colorado, Richmond beating Duke, CMU over MSU, and the countless close upsets (Ohio State-Navy, Iowa-N Iowa, etc).
Houston, in week 3, is a Top 10 team.
I can tell you about a team that won 45-35 visiting a 5th ranked team, has a quarterback that has already racked up 725 pasing yards, and put up 55 in a first week decisive opener vs an FCS team. I can also tell you about a team that… beat Virginia. One is, according to the most recent coaches poll, the 15th best team in the country, the other was shut-out of the Top 25. Guess which one is which.
(Answer, Houston is the former and was shut out, TCU has the win over UVA and is ranked 15th).
Media bias is alive and well
A couple more points from the coaches poll besides the obvious dismissal of Houston:
-Is OK State still really a top 20 team?
-Georgia is ahead of Cincinnati despite a clear loss and a less than convincing win.
-Cincinnati is not Top-20 despite offensive dominance (70 week 2, 40+ in away conference game week 1)
-FSU let a FCS school maintain a lead over them at home, lost to Miami last week, and still gets more votes than WVU?
-Ohio States record against T10 teams is still atrocious… it’s only fitting then that they are ranked 11
I was talking to a friend over the weekend and we noted how good this college football season has been so far. Alot of close games, surprising moves, and interesting games. Week 3 here we come!
Kazmir Has Been Dominant for Angels September 9, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.add a comment
(AP Photo/John Froschauer)
The Rays, even though they say they didn’t, mailed their season in when they traded their best pitcher in franchise history in Scott Kazmir while still in playoff contention. Sure, the Rays needed to save some cash, and they got three very good prospects in return, but you can’t sell playoff hopes to fans when you deal your franchises best pitcher of all-time at the tender age of 25. The Rays loss was the Angels gain, a team headed to the playoffs.
Since Kid K’s arrival in Los Angeles he has started two games, going 13.1 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs for a 1.35 ERA, 6 hits for a .128 BAA, and strikingout 12 against just 3 walks. Sure, the numbers may be in small sample sizes, but the stuff is up and the control is above-average and he’s pitched deep in both starts for the playoff-bound Angels.
Kazmir’s fastball has also been up. Maybe it’s re-uniting with Mike Butcher or maybe it’s something else but he is averageing 92.5 mph on his fastball with the Angels compared to 90.7 mph when he was with the Rays. He has also cut his BB/9 in half and is attacking the strike zone with confidence. Sure, the numbers may be in small sample sizes, but the stuff is up and the control is above-average.
Kazmir may very well be back on track to being a mid-3 ERA and 9.0+ K/9 guy again, or better, and if he is, then the Angels got a great pitcher locked up to a great contract for the next two seasons who also has playoff experience under his belt. Not a bad deal for the Angels at all.
Pedro Still Has Something Left September 5, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.add a comment
(AP Photo)
Pedro Martinez outdueled one of the best starters in the game on Thursday night in Tim Lincecum. Pedro went 7 innings allowing one run on five hits while striking out 9 and walking none, flashing above-average stuff all night.
Pedro’s fastball has been averaging 88.3 mph, his best since 2004, and he has found a new love for a cutter (seems to be a pitch that is re-making pitchers lately), using it almost 19% of the time. Pedro is keeping hitters off balance by changing speeds and pounding all areas of the strike zone with pinpoint control and hitters are only hitting line-drives 19.7% of the time off of his stuff.
Pedro’s stuff has been above-average so far this year. Maybe Pedro has had enough time off to get his health back to 100%, maybe this is too small a sample size, or maybe he is back as a reliable starter. Who knows? All we know is that so far, Pedro is dealing.
Currently sitting at 3-0 with an ERA of 3.52 and a 23/4 K/BB rate in 23 innings, Pedro is proving that he has something left to offer in the majors and he may get himself a nice one or two year deal in the offseason if he keeps this up down the strech. Welcome back Pedro.
College Season Begins September 3, 2009
Posted by Kevin in College, Football.2 comments
It’s taken an entire 9 months, but tonight the real college season kicks off with a handful of games, most notably Utah/Utah State, Oregon/Boise State, and South Carolina/NC State. So before this all goes down, let me take some time to call out the conferences and throw a perspective out there on what to look for this year! I’ll pick a winner, and I’ll pick a likely upset.
SEC
Hate to be this predictable, but I’d like more to be accurate. I think I’ll take the Gators to win the SEC this year, but simply on the basis that their schedule is very easy going, with their toughest game at LSU. I don’t buy into the “undefeated” prediction – weren’t they too good to lose a game last year? After all, it was just Ole Miss, by 1. Same thing this year. There’s gonna be an Ole Miss game but I concede I don’t know where.
For my upset, I’m going Ole Miss. I like Snead, I like they way they looked down the stretch last year, and I think this is a team that gets better as time goes on in the season. I feel like this group gelled last season and this is the year they can get it done. I can easily see an Ole Miss – Florida game for the SEC title.
ACC
I see the ACC as relatively top-heavy this year, with 3 or 4 teams likely to take the crown. Overall, I see Virginia Tech coming out on top again this year. I think they have favorable experience on the team, a good schedule, and a test early enough to make them hungry (vs Alabama on Monday).
Part of me wants to go with Clemson to take the upset spot here, but I think most likely to get that done is Georgia Tech. Clemson has a star RB and a group that has had a decent camp, but Georgia Tech is a little more consistent. They are a group that is more hard-hitting in an aggressive conference.
Big 12
There’s no doubt Texas will be the champ here. OK, there is legitimate doubt, but Texas is the obvious favorite – they were a touchdown away from the national championship game last year, they return star Colt McCoy (what an American name), and they earned a win against Oklahoma last year.
I also like Nebraska as a likely surprise champ. They looked good in their bowl game, and I think they added to their 08 talent level over a good summer/fall camp. I know I’m taking a gamble on this pick with Nebraska’s new offense, but I’m ok with my chances here.
Big East
Pitt’s not an easy choice, as I could have easily picked 5 other teams to win this 8-team conference. It’s not a bad conference, just competitive. Without an obvious star, they’ve been overlooked (the Big East that is) this preseason, but I think Pitt looked very good in the games they won last year, and they have a tough coach who knows how to iron out wrinkles.
For my upset pick, it’s more like an “either/or” in the Big East. I think I’m taking South Florida here. After a 2-5 conference record last year, the team needs now more than ever to shake the mis-season-slump reputation and get over the hump. They just took in a Top 30 recruiting class, beat out only by WVU, and made some coaching changes. Again, tough pick in the competitive Big East.
Big Ten
Penn State should continue staying at the top of the Big Ten this year, with a major challenger in Ohio State. I haven’t been convinced yet that OSU should be on top, but when they come to the Nittany Lion’s house this year, they could prove me wrong.
Keep an eye out for Iowa. They could surprise Ohio State, Penn State, and the rest of the nation. They return plenty of starters and had a noteworthy nine-win season last year.
Pac 10
Talk about top-heavy, what better example than the Pac-10. I have to go with USC here. My main beef with them is their freshman QB, but I can’t help but acknowledge that a freshman QB at USC is better than 75% of quarterbacks out there anyway. Even so, aside from the freshman QB, this is a top 10 team and leaders of the Pac 10.
I’m thinking we ought to watch out for Oregon. They have a tough schedule, but I like their offense, and think they could very well find just the right holes to break through the Pac 10 this year.
GO [INSERT YOUR COLLEGE TEAM HERE]!!!!!!! College football is here.
Broxton Better than Advertised August 28, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.2 comments
Jonathan Broxton is rarely mentioned in talks as an elite reliever. It’s probably because he wasn’t a full-time “closer” until this season and relievers rarely get mentioned unless they are racking up the overrated “save”.
Well, Broxton is racking up those saves this season (he has 28) but there still seems to be little talk of him. We here more about Joe Torre running his pen to the ground than we do about one of the most dominant arms in the game.
Broxton currently sits at 7-1 with 28 saves, 1 hold (his infamous “8th inning save), and a 2.83 ERA. Pretty good numbers, but he has actually out performed them.
Hitters are hitting a major league low (min 60 innings) .166 against Broxton and slugging for a major league low (tied) of .251 this year. Hitters are just flat out finding it hard to make contact with Broxton’s stuff. He leads the majors with a 13.28 K/9 rate (89 strikeouts in 60.1 innings), and when they do make contact it is pretty weak. Hitters are only hitting line-drives off of Broxton 17.7% of the time and his groundball rate is the best of his career at 54%.
Broxton’s stuff is also the best it has ever been. His fastball averages 97.8 mph (best in the majors by 1.6 mph), his slider averages 88.1 mph (2nd behind Andrew Bailey) and hitter’s contact percentage is 69.3%. All are top marks for Broxton’s young career.
Broxton’s numbers at the surface are great but his numbers below the surface are some of the best, if not the best, in the entire league. So, next time you talk about relievers, please tone down the talk on saves and give guys like Broxton a little more attention.
Padilla and Hernandez Have Nothing to Offer August 26, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.add a comment
Check your favorite site for transactions over the last week. You will see some minor moves, some call-ups, some trades, and two awful pitchers signed. Yes Dodgers, you made a bad decision in signing Vicente Padilla, and yes Nationals, you signed possibly the worst starter in the majors in Livan Hernandez.
The NL West contending Los Angeles Dodgers decided to fill a rotation spot by signing Vicente Padilla. The same Vicente Padilla that had a 4.92 ERA on the season for the contending Texas Rangers. The same Padilla that has not posted an ERA under 4.50 since 2003.
Yes, you read that correctly.
Joe Torre has run his bullpen to the ground and needs a starter to eat innings so he can rest his bullpen. Padilla is not the answer. I doubt Padilla will make it past five innings in his first start as a Dodger, which is in Colorado. Not good.
Mike Rizzo’s first free agent signing as full-time GM for the Washington Nationals might end up beign the worst player he ever signs as the Nats’ GM. He went out and got the most hittable pitcher he could possibly find in Livan Hernandez.
Hernandez owns the worst whip in the majors at 1.59, the worst ERA in the NL (3rd worst in the majors), the 3rd worst K/BB rate in the NL (5th worst in the majors), and the 5th highest line-drive percentage in the NL (7th worst in the majors). He also has a .312 BAA this season and had a ridiculous .342 BAA in 2008 to go with his 6.05 ERA that same season.
The Nationals are on the opposite end of the spectrum from the Dodgers. The Dodgers have everything to lose. The Nats, on the other hand, have nothing to lose but the shot at Bryce Harper in next year’s draft. Maybe Mike Rizzo’s first signing as GM is for good reason, he may be investing in his 2010 draft to ensure he gets the first overall pick. Ned Colletti’s signing, on the other hand, is for no good reason at all.
Why is Kila Ka’aihue not in KC? August 24, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.2 comments
The Kansas City Royals are sitting last in AL Central and they have the worst record in the American League to go with the second worst record in the entire majors. The Royals have the third worst on-base percentage in the majors (worst in AL) and they keep running Mike Jacobs out there with his impressive .307 OBP, no glove, and $3,275,000 salary. Oh, and they traded Leo Nunez (who makes league minimum and has pitched well in Florida) to get him. Why do I point this out? Because, the Royals have had Kila Ka’aihue sitting in their minor league system when he should be playing in Jacobs spot, out producing him for league minimum salary.
Kila Ka’aihue is no spring chicken. He turned 25 in March and is playing in Triple-A for a second time (but that can be blamed on Dayton Moore). In 2008, Kila Ka’aihue hit .314/.456/.628 with 37 homers and 104 walks against 67 strikeouts between Double-A and Triple-A.
This season hasn’t been as impressive but it has been productive. He is hitting .264/.400/.466 with 17 homers and 90 walks against 80 strikeouts. His OBP would easily rank first on the Royals and it would be 5th in the AL. Now, I’m not saying Kila Ka’aihue is a lock for a .400 OBP but what I am trying to say is that even if he produces a .365 OBP it would still rank first on the Royals and it would be for league minimum.
The Royals are a mess. They only have two players (Alberto Callaspo and Billy Butler) who qualify for the batting title that are playing at least league average on the offensive side of the ball. Kila Ka’aihue would be a breath of fresh air for the Royals but Dayton Moore apparently (pointing out the acquisitions of Jacobs, Miguel Olivo, Jose Guillen, Yuniskey Betancourt, and Willie Bloomquist) doesn’t think OBP is an important stat which makes me think he doesn’t think winning is an important thing. It’s time for Moore to re-think offensive philosophies and insert Kila Ka’aihue into KC’s lineup and take at-bats away from Jacobs.
Luke Bailey Could Be Steal of the Draft August 20, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.add a comment
ESPN photo
The Tampa Bay Rays failed to sign both of their first two picks (Levon Washington and Kenny Diekroeger) and they are catching a ton of heat from the media and are appearing on a lot of “worst draft of 2009″ lists. Do they deserve the bad press? Maybe. But their 4th round pick may help negate the loss of not signing their top two picks.
The Rays signed 4th round selection catcher Luke Bailey late last Friday night for $750,000 and prying him from a firm commitment to Auburn. Bailey was considered a 1st round talent until he injured his throwing elbow following his coach’s request to pitch in relief. He had to undergo Tommy John surgery and it, coupled with his strong commitment to Auburn, scared teams away from taking him until the Rays took him with the 139th selection.
Here is a scouting report of Bailey from Keith Law of ESPN:
Before the injury, Bailey had a plus-plus arm, with arm strength, a quick release, and great accuracy. He has a strong catcher’s body and shows good energy behind the plate. As a hitter, he has good bat speed but gets on his front foot early and slashes at the ball, so the power potential in his body isn’t realized yet. He also was one of the best-regarded kids in this draft for his character and — yes, people notice this stuff — his unfailing politeness.
The consensus I get from reading scouting reports on Bailey is that he shouldn’t have a problem staying behind the plate but if he had to move off the position he has the arm for third base and right field and is athletic enough to possibly move over to second base, but that is only if he is forced off of catcher. Oh, and his bat has the potential to be a top 5 bat at the catcher position.
Only time will tell but I believe the Rays got their catcher of the future and possibly the steal of the 2009 amateur draft.
Tigers All Gain and No Loss in Acquiring Huff August 18, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.2 comments
The Detroit Tigers acquired first baseman Aubrey Huff from the Baltimore Orioles a day ago in exchange for minor leaguer Brett Jacobson.
Huff is having a poor season after having arguably his best season as a pro in 2008 but the Tigers only gave up a minor league reliever to get him and his potentially potent bat.
In Huff’s career he has hit .299/.355/.511 in the second half, not to be out done by his August (.320/.363/.564) and September (.284/.351/.469) numbers. Compare those to his first half numbers of .271/.331/.445 and the Tigers got the better version of Huff for six weeks and, accoriding to Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts, Huff will be a type-A free agent at the end of the season and the Tigers could get up to two draft picks for him if they offer him arbitration.
This trade has a good chance to awaken Huff’s bat. “I’ve been in last place basically my whole career, so this is an exciting time for me,” Huff said. “I’m looking forward to it.”
The future is a hard thing to predict but this is not a bad trade when all the Tigers gave up was a minor league reliever who is in High-A ball and will be 23 years old in November.
Jonathan C. Mitchell
Kevin
