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You know what’s coming – bring on the week 5 drama! I’ve got a couple Top 5 lists to celebrate week 5 of the 2009 college football season.

Best 5 teams flying under the radar
1. Wisconsin – This offense is hard to keep up with (Avg. 36 pts per game). They’ve got some work to do, but they know it and won’t want to tarnish their 4-0 record any time soon. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has been impressive and kept his turnovers low.
2. Auburn – They have played good football consistently for 4 games, winning none by less than 11 points.
3. UCLA – This team’s 3-0 record actually has some substance to it, with convincing wins over Tennessee and KSU.
4. UConn – Their one loss comes from a last-minute holding call to give UNC a safety to win the game. A shot in the foot, but their level of effort makes them a team to watch out for. Nice win at Baylor, and a 50+ point show vs. URI.
5. NC State – Rusty in their home-opener against a team that would go on to defeat Ole Miss, NC State has handed powerful Pitt a loss and put up 45 and 65 against 2 FCS’s, like you’re supposed to.

Don’t buy these 5 teams… yet
1. Stanford – Like the other 4 teams on this list, I like Stanford, but have a few things keeping me from totally buying into them… yet. I love Stanford’s running game but am not impressed with their schedule (Wins vs Wash, Wash St, SJ State, and a loss to WF)
2. Iowa State – They say this team is turning around. They are 3-1 now and haven’t scored less than 31 points in a game, but as with Stanford, I want to see a win against an at least moderately competitive opponent.
3. Miami FL – They have started out hot and have earned alot of respect over the past few weeks. But after the surprise-factor runs out, you see they were literally an arms’ length away from a loss at Florida State, and looked sloppy vs. Va. Tech. They dont get another conference game until 10/24 and who knows how much they’ll be able to keep the fire going at that point.
4. Cal – We know based on the first 3 games what Cal is capable of. Last game, they lost to Oregon 42-3. We’re not sure which Cal team will show up from week to week here on out.
5. South Carolina -  Sure you beat NC State in the season opener, 7-3, and beat an arguably over-rated Ole Miss team, but I want to see 2 solid, convincing wins the next two weeks before I let the polls tell me yet another SEC team deserves ranked status because of performance, and not SEC bias.

5 Games to watch this week
1. Wisconsin @ Minnesota – Based on what I’ve written above, these teams will either make me look like a genius, or make me eat my words if Minnesota exposes Wisconsin’s offense as an illusion. Wisconsin’s defense needs to improve, because Minn will take advantage if given the chance. Could be a high-scoring game.
2. South Florida @ Syracuse – Congratulations to each of these teams for, by their own standards, good seasons so far. Syracuse – You’re heading into Big East play with 2 good wins behind you. Can you pull off the upset and introduce the world to a new Cuse? South Florida – Your win at Florida State was no fluke, but this game is being flagged even by ESPN’s analysts as an upset alert due to your habit of slacking for these trap games. Who is out to make the bigger statement.
3. LSU @ Georgia – This game is interesting for it’s ranking implications. A 4th ranked LSU boosted it’s ranking with a close win over Mississippi State (funny how one inch can be the difference between 4th and say, 24th). If they play like they did at Miss State, Georgia will win, and the cycle of confusing rankings continues.
4. UCLA @ Stanford – Two teams in the Pac-10 discussion this year meet up. Yet again another opportunity for me to either have made tons of sense, or be searching for some excuse as to why I think UCLA is under the radar, and Stanford is as of yet unconvincing.
5. Nebraska @ Mizzou – Nebraska’s one loss came against a very good Virginia Tech team. Conference play begins this week @ Missouri, who is 4-0. Both teams are looking to re-introduce themselves to conference-title discussion.

Tomorrow we’re expecting a formal announcement to be made introducing the Yankee Bowl to the 2010 Bowl Line-up. The bowl game will be hosted in Yankee Stadium up in New York City, where an audience of up to 47,000 will watch the Big East #4 take on Big 12 #7. (If Notre Dame heads to the Champs Sports Bowl, Big East #3 goes to the Yankee Bowl. Also, if the Big 12 can’t send up to 7 teams to bowl games, Notre Dame takes the Big 12 spot.) This could potentially mean some very interesting Yankee Bowl matches (Anyone want to guess the score of a Cincy-Texas Tech match-up?), and coupling this with the draw of New York City could be good news for all involved.

The additional bowl means there will be 35 bowl games in 2010. This means 70 of the 120 IA teams will be playing in a bowl in 2010. That’s pushing 60%. Is this good for College Football? Wasn’t there a time when going to a bowl was special? It’s clear that this bowl has little to do with improving the quality of the college football culture, and more to do with a collective effort to make money. They are entitled to do so, and will probably succeed. Hey, I’d even go as far as to say bowls will continue to pop up until the last bowl comes out in the red. But where is that equilibrium?

In 2008, you could have tuned in the last week to see one of any 34 bowls. You could have, for example, checked out the Motor City Bowl featuring Central Michigan and Florida Atlantic. Or perhaps Penn State vs. USC. All these teams of course look back on their bowl game last season, and all 4 throw those wins, losses, attendance figures, etc, into their bowl stats. Isn’t it a little misleading if you’re bragging on your bowl-streak when over half of IA teams make it to these bowls? That means some of the bottom half of IA get rights to bring up the “b” word when discussing their “success”.

I don’t want to see teams back out of bowl on this principle, and I don’t think the NCAA should stop bowl games from happening if people willingly get their butts on an airplane to stay in a hotel and attend the game. But I think the bowl landscape is changing and with it, we might be doing ourselves a favor if we adjust our lenses in the process. Beware the “B” word.

I don’t like to constantly be complaining about college football rankings. I personally don’t like them, but I wouldn’t abolish them. If it were up to me, there would simply be less emphasis on them and more emphasis on conference record. Without getting into it, I just wanted to share a good post from The New York Times’ college blog, The Quad, called “Coaches Rock the Vote, All Wrong” -

*Houston is undefeated with two quality wins, at Oklahoma State and at home against Texas Tech. Oklahoma State has a loss to Houston and one quality win, beating Georgia. Who is ranked higher in the coaches poll? Oklahoma State, of course — at No. 12 while Houston is No. 15.

*Oregon thumped California, 42-3. Each team has one loss. Oregon has three solid wins (Utah, Purdue and Cal) and a loss to a Boise team ranked No. 5. Cal has two mediocre wins (Maryland and Minnesota) and one gigantic stinker. The coaches vote the Bears No. 18 and the Ducks No. 25.

*Penn State beat Akron, Syracuse and Temple, then melted at the first real sight of competition, losing to Iowa, 21-10. Iowa won ugly (is there any other way for a Big Ten team?) against Northern Iowa and rebounded for wins against horrible Iowa State and mediocre Arizona. Then the Hawkeyes toppled Penn State on the road. Penn State is No. 13 and Iowa is No. 17.

*Yes, as a reminder, the same people voting in these polls account for one-third of the formula that determines the B.C.S. title game. The credibility of the sport is being battered every week.

So let’s open up week 4’s can of worms shall we? We’re in for a ride this weekend, so hang tight as I continue another less-than-mainstream look at college football after week 3, because yes, there is another football team in Ohio other than Ohio State.

Hats off to Cincinnati

Congratulations to Tony Pike, Brian Kelly, and the Cincinnati Bearcats for their current T15 ranking and outstanding performance against OSU (Oregon State… not the other one) this past weekend. The Bearcats fully deserve their ranking after 3 very solid and decisive wins against conference-opponent Rutgers to open the season and Oregon State, both on the road. I’ll go as far as to say Cincy could put one on Ohio State, who struggled against Navy, but played tough vs. USC, and at least keep them on the ropes, if not take their crown as the best football team in Ohio in 2009.

Second Thoughts on a few ACC teams

Checking out the AP T25, I see 4 ranked ACC teams, with Georgia Tech mere votes away. Last week I noted the ACC was a little messy, but it’s been fun to watch these Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and Virginia Tech games, and I anticipate a clear 2 or 3 contenders to emerge in the next 2 weeks.

Top 3 teams not named Florida or Texas

1. Cal
2. Alabama
3. Miami

3 Hot Stocks

1. UConn’s running game (Dixon runs for 3td against Baylor)
2. Tennessee’s defense
3. Mid-tier SEC teams (Auburn, South Carolina)

MWC must find W’s this week

There are 2 big games the MWC needs to win to hang on to their argument that they too deserve an automatic bowl qualifier: Utah vs Louisville, and TCU @ Clemson. This weekend won’t settle the debate but even one win will fuel their fire.

Games of the week

1. Texas Tech @ Houston – Can Houston prove it belongs among the best in college football, or will Texas Tech rebound off a tough loss and come out swinging?
2. Cal @ Oregon – A hot Cal team looks to stay on top, while an Oregon upset certainly isn’t out of the question.
3. South Florida @ Florida State – Florid State dominated BYU last week on the road, and the Bulls fight for in-state respect with RsFr. QB BJ Daniels.

Week 2 of College Football 2009 is in the books. Here are some points you may not find in the headlines of major sports news outlets:

Syracuse has been relatively impressive
The Orange were one bad decision by newcomer Greg Paulus away from a win over a decent Big Ten team – Minnesota. They don’t have the win for this one, but the game was theirs. They also held #7 Penn State to under 30 and managed to get 7 on the board. Not quite the blowout you’d expect from PSU vs bottom-of-the-Big-East-barrel Syracuse. Big names facing the Orange later in the season need to be on upset alert.

The ACC is a mess
… For now. Now, this could be a “good” mess in that competition is spread throughout the conference, or a bad mess, in that this is truly an underacheiving conference, but here are the key points to pay attention to; The football Gods must be ACC fans because both UNC, FSU, Maryland and Georgia Tech won by 3 or less (FSU and Maryland against FCS teams). The nonconference record has been unimpressive with losses to South Carolina, Baylor, and a couple of FCS teams. Let me clarify this conference is not awful, but certainly looks a little lost right now.

Expect the upset
Every year you get your fair share of upsets, but this year seems to be a little more volatile than usual, and especially since it’s all right off the bat. We’ve seen big wins by BYU, CMU, Miami, and Houston, and that’s just 2 weeks (Should I mention Michigan’s win here too?). This is also the year to respect the non-BCS conference teams. I don’t even have to mention Boise State, TCU, BYU, or Utah to make this point, with Toledo hanging 50+ on Colorado, Richmond beating Duke, CMU over MSU, and the countless close upsets (Ohio State-Navy, Iowa-N Iowa, etc).

Houston, in week 3, is a Top 10 team.
I can tell you about a team that won 45-35 visiting a 5th ranked team, has a quarterback that has already racked up 725 pasing yards, and put up 55 in a first week decisive opener vs an FCS team. I can also tell you about a team that… beat Virginia. One is, according to the most recent coaches poll, the 15th best team in the country, the other was shut-out of the Top 25. Guess which one is which.
(Answer, Houston is the former and was shut out, TCU has the win over UVA and is ranked 15th).

Media bias is alive and well
A couple more points from the coaches poll besides the obvious dismissal of Houston:

-Is OK State still really a top 20 team?
-Georgia is ahead of Cincinnati despite a clear loss and a less than convincing win.
-Cincinnati is not Top-20 despite offensive dominance (70 week 2, 40+ in away conference game week 1)
-FSU let a FCS school maintain a lead over them at home, lost to Miami last week, and still gets more votes than WVU?
-Ohio States record against T10 teams is still atrocious… it’s only fitting then that they are ranked 11

I was talking to a friend over the weekend and we noted how good this college football season has been so far. Alot of close games, surprising moves, and interesting games. Week 3 here we come!

It’s taken an entire 9 months, but tonight the real college season kicks off with a handful of games, most notably Utah/Utah State, Oregon/Boise State, and South Carolina/NC State. So before this all goes down, let me take some time to call out the conferences and throw a perspective out there on what to look for this year! I’ll pick a winner, and I’ll pick a likely upset.

SEC

Hate to be this predictable, but I’d like more to be accurate. I think I’ll take the Gators to win the SEC this year, but simply on the basis that their schedule is very easy going, with their toughest game at LSU. I don’t buy into the “undefeated” prediction – weren’t they too good to lose a game last year? After all, it was just Ole Miss, by 1. Same thing this year. There’s gonna be an Ole Miss game but I concede I don’t know where.

For my upset, I’m going Ole Miss. I like Snead, I like they way they looked down the stretch last year, and I think this is a team that gets better as time goes on in the season. I feel like this group gelled last season and this is the year they can get it done. I can easily see an Ole Miss – Florida game for the SEC title.

ACC

I see the ACC as relatively top-heavy this year, with 3 or 4 teams likely to take the crown. Overall, I see Virginia Tech coming out on top again this year. I think they have favorable experience on the team, a good schedule, and a test early enough to make them hungry (vs Alabama on Monday).

Part of me wants to go with Clemson to take the upset spot here, but I think most likely to get that done is Georgia Tech. Clemson has a star RB and a group that has had a decent camp, but Georgia Tech is a little more consistent. They are a group that is more hard-hitting in an aggressive conference.

Big 12

There’s no doubt Texas will be the champ here. OK, there is legitimate doubt, but Texas is the obvious favorite – they were a touchdown away from the national championship game last year, they return star Colt McCoy (what an American name), and they earned a win against Oklahoma last year.

I also like Nebraska as a likely surprise champ. They looked good in their bowl game, and I think they added to their 08 talent level over a good summer/fall camp. I know I’m taking a gamble on this pick with Nebraska’s new offense, but I’m ok with my chances here.

Big East

Pitt’s not an easy choice, as I could have easily picked 5 other teams to win this 8-team conference. It’s not a bad conference, just competitive. Without an obvious star, they’ve been overlooked (the Big East that is) this preseason, but I think Pitt looked very good in the games they won last year, and they have a tough coach who knows how to iron out wrinkles.

For my upset pick, it’s more like an “either/or” in the Big East. I think I’m taking South Florida here. After a 2-5 conference record last year, the team needs now more than ever to shake the mis-season-slump reputation and get over the hump. They just took in a Top 30 recruiting class, beat out only by WVU, and made some coaching changes. Again, tough pick in the competitive Big East.

Big Ten

Penn State should continue staying at the top of the Big Ten this year, with a major challenger in Ohio State. I haven’t been convinced yet that OSU should be on top, but when they come to the Nittany Lion’s house this year, they could prove me wrong.

Keep an eye out for Iowa. They could surprise Ohio State, Penn State, and the rest of the nation. They return plenty of starters and had a noteworthy nine-win season last year.

Pac 10

Talk about top-heavy, what better example than the Pac-10. I have to go with USC here. My main beef with them is their freshman QB, but I can’t help but acknowledge that a freshman QB at USC is better than 75% of quarterbacks out there anyway. Even so, aside from the freshman QB, this is a top 10 team and leaders of the Pac 10.

I’m thinking we ought to watch out for Oregon. They have a tough schedule, but I like their offense, and think they could very well find just the right holes to break through the Pac 10 this year.

GO [INSERT YOUR COLLEGE TEAM HERE]!!!!!!! College football is here.

I had some free time this weekend so I tried to get a little project done…

Some journalists out there have recently implied (or directly stated) that perhaps the Big East either doesn’t deserve it’s bowl tie-in, or that in fact the MWC deserves it in addition to or rather than the Big East. So I of course asked – where are the numbers? Since there weren’t that many out there, I had to do some of the footwork, and thanks to Excel and ctrl+c, this task was made alot easier.

I took all the top 60 rankings as determined by the latest USA Today poll and placed them in a table. I then compiled a list of the remaining 60 FBS teams, averaged their Quad score (NYT blog… not the best, but a decent, well researched source) and the Rivals score to get the remaining rankings for the bottom 60 teams.

I then averaged out the rankings by conference. Here are the findings:

SEC – 33.5
ACC – 41.04
Big 12 – 42.04
Big 10 – 44.05
Pac 10 – 45.3
Big East – 49.94
Ind. – 64.5
MWC – 65.44
WAC – 76.56
CUSA – 81.79
MAC – 86.5
Sun Belt – 96.11

The MWC is top-heavy, with Utah, TCU, and BYU all in the top 25. After that the next best team is #57 Air Force. On the other hand, the top 5 Big East teams are all in the top 40.

Apparently, ESPN’s analysts either failed to see the distribution of success in the conferences, or simply do not care and exclusively value the 1, 2, or 3 big names of a conference rather than it’s competitiveness as a whole. Of course statistic like this never tell the whole story. Who has a stronger/weaker schedule? What have they historically looked like? And perhaps the question most relevant today – What will these numbers look like after January 2010?