2009 MLB Breakout Candidates April 8, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball, Fantasy.4 comments
Every year we get great seasons from people that we never expected. Last year it was Ryan Ludwick, Nate McLouth, Cliff Lee, and Carlos Quentin to name a few. Who is it going to be this year? Well, I have a few candidates that I believe will take that next step and have big breakout seaosons in 2009.
Elijah Dukes (WAS) – Dukes is starting the season as the National’s 4th outfielder but that won’t last long. Dukes’ talent is off the charts and he has kept his nose clean recently. He had a less-than-stellar spring but Manny Acta can’t keep him out of the lineup for long. If you project Dukes’ 2008 stats over 550 at-bats he would’ve hit .264/.386/.478 with 26 homers, 26 steals, 96 runs, and 88 RBI. That OBP of .386 would have been good for 9th in the NL. If Dukes plays he can outperform those numbers. 30/30 is not out of the question, and I would bet on 20/20 for Dukes in 2009 with a very high OBP.
Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – This guy should be a Cy Young award contender this year. Gallardo has a #1 starter package. He has good command and control of his above-average stuff. I would bet on 15-17 wins, 180+ strikeouts and an ERA that will be below 3.50 with the possibility of going south of 3.00 if the defense makes some plays behind him.
Nelson Cruz (TEX) – Cruz hit 44 combined homers in 2008 between Triple-A and the majors. He also had 27 combined stolen bases. Cruz has won the RF job for the Rangers and should be batting 4th or 5th most nights. Expect 25+ homers and 85+ RBI out of this guy with double-digit steals.
Joey Votto (CIN) – As if last season wasn’t enough of a breakout, I think Votto has more in his bat. In that park and in that lineup (assuming Baker moves Tavares out of the leadoff spot) Votto should have no problem hitting .300/.375/.535 with 30 homers, 100 RBI, and 10 steals. He should be that good.
Kevin Slowey (MIN) – Some scouts refuse to buy into Slowey and tab him as a #4-#5 starter. I disagree. A guy with his control and command and a great defense behind him, on top of his good stuff, is poised for a big season. I wouldn’t rule him out as a Cy Young candidate. Don’t be surprised if he wins 15+ games with an ERA hovering around 3.25 and 150 strikeouts with less than 40 walks in 200 innings.
Shin-Soo Choo (CLE) – I’m not alone on this breakout candidate. Many people will quote his 2008 post All-Star break stats (.343/.424/.614 with 20 doubles, 11 homers, 50 runs, 48 RBI) but scouts are also talking about his ability to drive the ball to all fields with ease and unlike before. He also has a legit shot at double-digit steals. Don’t be surprised if he ends up .300/.365/.525 with 20+ homers and 10+ steals.
Howie Kendrick (LAA) – Can he stay healthy? I think this is the year he does, and if he is healthy he will have a huge season. He will hit .300 and with a little patience he could top a .350 OBP. Look for Kendrick to hit .310+ with roughly 10 homers and 15+ steals.
Fred Lewis (SF) – Lewis has a starting job in San Fran and he will be batting near the top of the order all season. Lewis has wheels, a little pop, and good patience. Look for Lewis to hit at least .285/.360/.450 with 12-15 homers and 25 steals.
Lastings Milledge (WAS) – He has matured and he had a decent season last year that he surely to build upon. If he shows some of the patience he showed in his first two stints in the majors then he should have no problem hitting .275/.350/.450 with 20/30 potential.
Russell Branyan (SEA) – It’s hard to call a 33 year old a breakout candidate but Branyan is going to have a big power season. I don’t care about the strikeouts and yes his average will be low, but he will hit 30+ homers and post an OPS around .850 because he will take walks and has unmatched power.
Adam Jones (BAL) – He has been one of the most mentioned names among scouts and executives when asked who has impressed this spring. Jones has all the tools to be a .280 hitter with 20/20 potential. If he doesn’t breakout this year then I guarantee he will in 2010.
Ryan Spilborghs (COL) – In 668 at-bats in his career he has hit .302/.374/.466 with 21 homers, 16 steals, 104 runs, and 109 RBI. He has a starting gig in CF but should move to LF once Dexter Fowler takes over. He should get 500 at-bats and he will hit at least .290/.355/.445 with double digit homers and steals. Don’t be surprised if he puts up numbers close to his career totals either.
Josh Johnson (FLA) – Scouts are raving about his stuff this spring and he is finally healthy. He pitched very well over 87.1 innings last year and is at full strenght now. Peter Gammons picked him to win the Cy Young award and he might not be too far off as long as the Marlins awful defense can make some plays behind him. Don’t be surprised if Johnson ends up winning 14+ with an ERA below 3.50 and 170+ strikeouts.
Rickie Weeks (MIL) – Weeks has slowed his game down and he tore up spring pitching. Weeks has all the tools and an incredible eye. With a little more aggression he could have a huge breakout season. I wouldn’t rule out a .400 OBP with 15 homers and 30+ steals.
-Jonathan C. Mitchell
2009 Stat Projections – Shortstops February 3, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball, Fantasy.1 comment so far
My 2009 stat projections continue by finishing off the infield with shortstops. Here they are:
Name AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SB R
Elvis Andrus .270 .315 .338 3 46 31 58
Mike Aviles .293 .344 .456 14 68 10 87
Erik Aybar .271 .312 .379 5 48 10 67
Jason Bartlett .281 .334 .380 3 42 21 66
Yunesky Betancourt .277 .296 .394 7 43 5 53
Asdrubal Cabrera .276 .351 .392 9 61 8 77
Orlando Cabrera .280 .335 .374 8 59 20 87
Ronny Cedeno .271 .331 .376 7 35 4 41
Bobby Crosby .248 .305 .392 11 64 6 68
Stephen Drew .287 .336 .490 22 76 6 95
Alcides Escobar .276 .309 .364 3 21 12 36
Yunel Escobar .289 .368 .430 12 67 4 82
Adam Everett .242 .296 .343 4 33 11 57
Rafael Furcal .290 .362 .440 14 61 28 96
Khalil Greene .253 .301 .426 19 68 5 66
Christian Guzman .285 .324 .410 8 48 7 74
J.J. Hardy .280 .342 .483 26 81 2 87
Brendan Harris .274 .335 .408 9 53 3 65
Cesar Izturis .257 .308 .312 1 34 26 69
Macier Izturis .274 .336 .379 5 40 13 52
Derek Jeter .298 .362 .424 12 71 13 94
Jeff Keppinger .279 .331 .408 5 39 3 41
Brent Lillibridge .251 .318 .386 6 33 16 40
Jed Lowrie .267 .342 .422 7 60 5 64
Julio Lugo .266 .334 .385 4 36 14 48
John McDonald .229 .268 .287 1 16 2 20
Jhonny Peralta .278 .340 .487 25 93 2 97
Hanley Ramirez .306 .404 .538 31 74 41 126
Edgar Renteria .282 .346 .418 10 69 9 88
Jose Reyes .295 .356 .473 15 70 58 115
Luis Rodriguez .246 .304 .339 1 21 2 24
Jimmy Rollins .283 .347 .465 18 74 42 107
Ramon Santiago .264 .336 .384 5 24 7 37
Marco Scutaro .264 .339 .358 6 43 4 54
Miguel Tejada .284 .331 .449 17 80 3 80
Ryan Theriot .288 .370 .351 2 41 25 82
Troy Tulowitzki .297 .363 .477 22 91 4 98
Jack Wilson .276 .318 .377 8 47 4 63
Michael Young .296 .347 .426 11 84 7 100
-Jonathan C. Mitchell
2009 Stat Projections – Thirdbasemen January 30, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball, Fantasy.5 comments
The Hot Corner is up and ready for your viewing pleaseures! (more…)
2009 Stat Projections – Secondbasemen January 29, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball, Fantasy.2 comments
Here are my stat projections for secondbasemen. Enjoy!: (more…)
2009 Stat Projections – Firstbasemen January 24, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball, Fantasy.5 comments
Stat projections continue with firstbasemen. Check them out here: (more…)
2009 Stat Projections – Catchers January 13, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball, Fantasy.5 comments
Today, I start my stat projections. I will do them position-by-position and I will start with catchers. So here are my 2009 catcher stat projections: (more…)
My Fantasy Football Draft August 22, 2008
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Fantasy, Football.4 comments
In our league format we do one draft (this is our 4th year doing the draft) and we draft for two leagues (our 2nd year doing that). We do a points league and a Head-2-Head league. We expanded to 12 teams for the first time and we do our draft based on last year’s standings with the expansion owners at the end of the draft. I finished 3rd in the points league (after winning the first two years) and 1st in the h2h but we go by the points league standing so I drafted 8th overall. We get to keep one player from our previous team as well or we can opt out of keeping and take another available player. Here is how my team wound up: (more…)
Known vs. Unknown May 27, 2008
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Fantasy.comments closed
(AP Photo/Paul Beaty)
Have you ever heard of Gary Sheffield? Robinson Cano? Ryan Howard? How about Valdimir Guerrero? Of course you have. How about David Murphy? Jeff Keppinger? Nate McLouth? Ryan Ludwick? Odds are you didn’t know who any of these guys were until a few weeks into the season, yet they are outproducing the above mentioned superstars by a landslide. (more…)
Career Stats Speak Volumes Over April Stats April 23, 2008
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Fantasy.2 comments
Before getting too excited about the early success of some of the starters on your fantasy pitching staff, or getting down on some starters for starting out slowly, be sure to check out their lifetime stats and/or trends. Some pitchers who have pitched well thus far this season, may just be early season wonders. Don’t hesitate to deal one of those pitchers if their lifetime stats suggest it won’t last. Rarely will an average pitcher suddenly turn it around and become an ace. It happens on occasion, but it is rare. (more…)
2008 Fantasy Sleepers March 16, 2008
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Fantasy.15 comments
Every year we all try to nab sleepers during our draft. Truth be told, we all have our own personal sleepers and we refuse to listen to other people’s advise. So I devised a list of guys that you can nab either in the last two rounds of your draft or in waivers or free agents. Make sure you add these guys to your watch list. (more…)
Jonathan C. Mitchell
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