Playing a Different Game December 27, 2009
Posted by Kevin in College.add a comment
In a few weeks, Alabama will play Texas in the NCAA Football National Championship game. SEC vs. Big 12. Conference 1 against Conference 2… right? Well, kind of. The SEC has the best non-conference record this season at .728, and after the big game, a presense (if not a winner) in the last 4 National Championship games. Pretty impressive. However, let me pick on the SEC for a second and review some facts, with a little help from the Bleacher Report. After all, doesn’t the saying go selective facts are as good as falsehoods?
Argument 1: The SEC dominates the rest of college football – it’s out of conference record shows it.
Fact 1: Only 29% of non-conference opponents on the SEC’s schedule this season were against BCS opponents. There’s no doubt it would impossible to obtain a schedule that perfectly reflected the amount and level of talent across the entire sport, but 29% places them at a comfortable fifth of the 6 AQ conferences. Not more comfortable though than the Big 12 – sixth at 23%.
Argument 2: The SEC doesn’t need a tough out-of-conference (OOC) schedule. The SEC is tough enough as it is.
Fact 2: Only 3 teams in the 12-team conference have a conference record better than .500. Alabama, LSU, and Florida. The Pac 10 has 6, Big East has 3 (of 8 teams), and Big 12 and Big 10 both have 5. While this is solid evidence that the SEC is top-heavy, can they really say they are competitive from top to bottom? Remember, this is about the conference, not teams.
Argument 3: The SEC’s winning bowl record proves they can play the best of the best and still win.
Fact 3: Teams only need 6 wins to reach a bowl, with 1 coming from FCS competition. Given the facts above doesn’t it seem more than likely a team will reach a bowl with such scheduling patterns? Not to mention bowls are played at neutral sites, which leads to…
Fact 4: The SEC is tied with the Big 12 for the most unbalanced home-away schedule. In other words, they love to stay at home. Only 1 SEC team played a balanced schedule (Vandy) this year, while 50% of Big East and Pac 10 teams played a 6-6 schedule. SEC shares the number 1 spot at 92% of it’s teams scheduling less away games than home games. 2 SEC teams played 8 home games in 2009.
Let’s speed this up.
5. 2008 National Champion Florida hasn’t played an out of conference, out of state regular game since 1991. (As a side-note, USC will play at Minnesota next year. Oklahoma will play at Cincinnatti next year, Texas played at Wyoming this year, etc.).
6. From 05-09, in regular season games outside the south, the SEC is 4-10.
7. Half of the Pac 10 finished in the T25. 3 teams in the 8-team Big East, and ACC and Big 12, did as well – matching the SEC’s 3.
So what am I trying to say?
I’m not saying the SEC is a bad conference. There’s little to no evidence it is a bad conference. However, they are playing a different game. What would you do if I told you the Lakers won the NBA Finals without ever playing in the midwest or east coast through the whole season? How convinced would you be if the Yankees won the Wolrd Series with 29% of their non-division games against major-league teams? The SEC hasn’t won the last 3 National Championship games, Florida and LSU have. And with the way Utah played last year against Alabama, Florida should consider itself lucky the BCS works the way it does. Until the BCS changes, these teams and conferences will continue to take advantage of a system that doesn’t provoke genuine competition among teams and conferences.
In a world where perception rules reality, the SEC will continue to be perceived as the strongest conference. My only hope is that these facts appear in that same discussion.
Non-Tendered Gomes and Gross Could Offer Good Platoon December 13, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.Tags: Cincinnati Reds, Gabe Gross, Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay Rays
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We learned just a couple hours ago that the Tampa Bay Rays are not goning to tender outfielder Gabe Gross a contract. He was due for a raise from his 1.255M salary and the Rays deemed him expendable with Matt Joyce more than ready to take over rightfield duties and hit against right handers.
The Cincinnati Reds decision to non-tender outfielder Jonny Gomes was quite a surprise. This means the Reds are happy with a platoon of Chris Dickerson and Wladimir Balentien in left field or they think top prospect Chris Heisey is ready.
This could be good news for a team that is in need of a right field or left field platoon on the cheap.
Gabe Gross has a career .251/.346/.414 slash line against righties, which is below-average for a corner outfielder. Gross also has a career UZR/150 of +17.6 in RF, +2.5 in CF, and +21.8 in LF and a well above-average arm.
Jonny Gomes has a career .274/.369/.517 slash line against lefties, which is more than adequate for a corner bat. Gomes’ UZR/150 is a far cry from normal with a -20.2 in RF and a -25.7 in LF and his best position may be DH if he is asked to be more than a platoon player.
Oh, and both players are incredible guys and assets to any clubhouse.
A team like the Kansas City Royals should be all over this platoon for them in RF or LF when/if they trade David DeJesus (one of their top two players at getting on base) but the Royals do not value players with anything higher than a .320 OBP and a platoon of Gross/Gomes would give them something in the range of .350-.360 and that will clog too many bases in Kansas City.
Odds are that no one team will sign both players to platoon and/or rotate in the corner outfield. Both players landing in one spot is just a scenario that I believe could help give a team something in the 2-3 win range at a marginal price if they have a vacancy in a corner outfield spot. Separately, Oakland could be a great fit for Gomes, his hometown is about 15 minutes away and the A’s vlaue power bats patience. Gross could fit anywhere that values great defense and patience. Either way, both of these guys should find jobs soon but it would be cool to see them in a platoon somewhere.
Rays Get a Huge Upgrade in Shoppach December 2, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.Tags: Cleveland Indians, Dioner Navarro, Kelly Shoppach, Tampa Bay Rays
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The Tampa Bay Rays received 29 year old arbitration eligible catcher Kelly Shoppach today from the Cleveland Indians in exchange for a player to be named later. As long as the player to be named later is not one of the Rays top prospects this is a steal for the Rays.
The Rays are taking Shoppach on the heals of a down season in which he hit .214/.335/.399 with a wOBA of .329 and 1.7 WAR, still better than what their most played catcher Dioner Navarro did (.218/.261/.322 with a wOBA of .258 and -0.1 WAR).
In 2008, Shoppach hit to the tune of .261/.348/.517 with a wOBA of .370 and an amazing 3.6 WAR. Navarro made the AL all-star team and hit .295/.349/.407 with a wOBA of .340 and 2.7 WAR. Weird how the inferior player is the all-star here.
In thier careers, Shoppach is a .241/.327/.449 with a wOBA of .338, 6.5 WAR, and an OPS+ of 105 in 1043 plate appearances while Navarro is a .254/.312/.364 with a wOBA of .297, 5.2 WAR, and an OPS+ of 78 in 1822 plate appearances. Remeber, an OPS+ of 100 is league average.
Do I think Shoppach will return to his 2008 form? No, nor will Navarro. But I do think he has a better shot at repeating it than Navarro does. Oh, and Shoppach is a better defensive catcher in almost every area.
What the Rays get in Shoppach is a catcher that can handle his position and will hit above league average, which is amazing for a catcher to do. While he will strike out a lot (37.3% in his career) he will hit for a lot of power (career .208 ISO) and take a good number of walks (career 8.8%) and work the count (3.93 pitches per plate appearance). Navarro does have Shoppach beat in K% (14.6%) but loses in the other categories with a career ISO of .111, career walk rate of 7.6%, and sees 3.77 pitches per plate appearance. Shoppach, on last year’s numbers alone was worth 1.8 wins more than Navarro and I think the Rays can easily take that number to the bank again in 2010.
The Rays have been looking for creative ways to shed payroll while upgrading the roster at the same time. Both catchers are arb-eligible and will make $2M-$3M next season, leaving Navarro a potential non-tender candidate, even at the young age of 25. Acquiring Shoppach and potentially dropping Navarro is a prime example of doing just what the Rays are all about. This move eximplifies Andrew Friedman’s ability to properly evaluate talent and value. This is just one of the many great moves Friedman and company have made since taking over. Don’t be surprised to see the Rays make a few more moves like this and then come into 2010 with their best team ever on the field.
Hope You Took It to The Bank December 2, 2009
Posted by Kevin in College.Tags: ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, NCAA, Pac 10, SEC
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AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall
With the final week of the regular season of College Football 09 coming up, it’s time to revisit some of my predicitions from back in September. What went wrong, what went right, and what surprised us?
SEC
I called Florida winning the conference, with one loss, facing Ole Miss in the conference championship. Florida is no doubt the favorite this weekend, though if there’s anyone they’ve faced this year that will put up a legitimate fight, it’s Alabama, who has a strong case for being #1 as well. Florida has found a way to win in every game so far, though their schedule has been a joke. Don’t believe me? They’ve played one team currently ranked in the T25. Current number five Cincy has played and beaten 2, with a chance to beat a third this weekend. Guess who will be “#1″ if both win out.
As far as Ole Miss goes,I, along with many others, predicted they would build on the strong finish of 2008, but Snead hasn’t been the superstar some predicted, and the Ole Miss defense hasn’t kept up with opponents.
ACC
I thought Virginia Tech would be on top, with Georgia Tech close behind. Turns out I had it backwards. Georgia Tech has taken the Coastal division with VaTech 2nd. I just couldn’t call a winner coming from the Atlantic. Clemson would have been a smart pick but difficult to choose over the others. Clemson will face Georgia Tech for the conference crown Saturday, which will be a very interesting rematch of the regular season game where Clemson lost to #15 GT 27-30.
I haven’t done so bad so far.
Big XII
I picked Texas to take it home, with Nebraska coming up close behind. Hope you took it to the bank. Nebraska will give Texas a tough time in the conference championship game, I predict. They lost to #13 Virginia Tech earlier this season by 1, and have won by at least 8 in their last 5 games; all conference games. Texas plays clean games though and Nebraska will need some big Texas mistakes to go for the upset. Nebraska should beat the spread (15.5) but I can’t see how Nebraska can overcome a relentless offense that doesn’t make many mistakes for the win. If they do win there will be one team thanking them…
Big East
Cincy is carrying the Big East banner this year, though I thought Pitt would come out ahead in the end with South Florida close behind. I hesitated about Cincinnatti because of their 10 brand new starters on defense. Pitt looked great through spring drills and, while they had no superstar players, they are well rounded and well coached. Pitt will play Cincy Saturday for the Big East’s BCS bid. If Cincy wins, they will be 12-0 and have a strong case to play in the national championship game. If Pitt wins, they’re BCS bowl-ing to finish a strong season. The rest of the conference was hard to call, and I thought South Florida, with plenty of seniors and two seasons of sporadic success, would put together a good run this year.
Big Ten
I picked Penn State to win it with a surprise pick of Iowa. Obviously I stand behind my Iowa pick, though I didn’t see much talk of Iowa before the season. They are a field goal away from 1st place, and will settle behind Ohio State to close the books on a big regular season. They had trouble staying in games, but always found a way to win, generating alot of commentary on their way to the T5 this year. Penn State has been terrific this year with it’s only losses coming from #1 and #2 in the Big Ten.
Pac 10
I’m most embarassed about this pick here – I picked USC to win it. This cliche, generic pick of mine came back to bite me. To make things a little better, for my “don’t be shocked at this surprise team” pick, I chose Oregon, who plays Oregon State for that #1 spot Thursday. After a very rough start for Oregon, they have convincingly put together a winning season and will be a tough match for the Beavers. As far as USC goes, I’m genuinely not surprised at their losses this year. No team is invincible and anything can happen any given week. Yes, that includes Washington beating USC.
How did I do?
Well, there are 6 conferences I called, and I chose a safe bet and a team to surprise for each one. Depending on how things go, I could go 5-1 if you include both picks (Florida, Texas/Neb, Pitt, Oregon, Georgia Tech).
I’ll revisit this next week after all is decided.
2010 HOF Candidate: Mike Jackson December 1, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.Tags: Hall of Fame, Mike Jackson
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Every year there seems to be a long-time middle-reliever that closed games out for a couple of seasons on the list of Hall of Fame hopefuls. This year is not any different. The “name famous” Mike Jackson is that man.
Jackson played 17 seasons in the majors, pitching in 1005 games and logging 1188.1 innings of 3.42 ERA ball for an ERA+ of 125. Very nice numbers. In those 1188.1 innings Jackson struck out 1006 while walking 464 and notching 142 of my favorite stat, the save. He also posted a FIP of 3.96.
His best season came in 1998 with the Cleveland Indians when he posted a 1.55 ERA in 64 innings while striking out 55 and only allowing 43 hits and walking 13. He also had a career high 40 saves and a ridiculous ERA+ of 307.
In 28.2 postseason innings he posted a 4.71 ERA with 25 strikeouts and 13 walks but a FIP of 3.63. Oh, and he had a 3-run double in a 1995 NLDS game against the Reds.
Jackson falls well short of election and if anyone votes for him they should have their voting rights seriously questioned. While he was a good major leaguer for a long time he was nohall of famer, not even close. Still, Mike Jackson should hold his head high for just getting his name on the ballot because not too many people can claim they had their name on a hall of fame ballot.
2010 Hall of Fame Candidates November 28, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.Tags: Hall of Fame
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I am currently working on multiple articles to go over the strong class of 2010 hall of fame candidates and carry-overs. I will do a piece on each candidate starting with the players that would not recieve a vote, if Ihad one, and ending with the players that would definitely get my vote. Here is a quick list of the candidates:
Roberto Alomar
Kevin Appier
Harold Baines
Bert Blyleven
Ellis Burks
Andre Dawson
Andres Galarraga
Pat Hentgen
Mike Jackson
Eric Karros
Ray Lankford
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Tim Raines
Shane Reynolds
David Segui
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Robin Ventura
Todd Zeile
Stay tuned for each article.
Andruw Jones Might Be an Upgrade in RF November 27, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.Tags: Andruw Jones, Chicago White Sox, Free Agent, Jermaine Dye, Texas Rangers
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(AP Photo)
The Chicago White Sox struck a heck of a deal with OF/DH/1B Andruw Jones that will pay him a base salary of $500k with the potential for $1M more, a figure he will surely reach with moderate playing time. I absolutely love this deal for the White Sox even though they will not give him a starting job, at least not right off the bat.
The White Sox are likely going to lose outfielders Scott Podsednik and Jermaine Dye this offseason and they have already lost backup outfielder DeWayne Wise. The White Sox needed some outfield depth and that’s why they signed Jones.
The White Sox already have Carlos Quentin in left and Alex Rios is more than capable of patrolling center, but they are slated to have Mark Kotsay, Alejandro De Aza or some other quad-A player in right. Bleh. That gives them no power in an outfield corner spot. Not good. I think Andruw Jones could and should be the man in right field next season and, check this, he may actually be an upgrade over the beloved Jermaine Dye.
Jermaine Dye posted a sad and pathetic UZR/150 of -24.5 in right last year. Add that to a .250/.340/.453 slash line and .344 wOBA over 574 plate appearances and you end up with a -0.3 WAR player. That’s right, -0.3. He was below replacement level last season. In 2008 he was a 1.7 WAR player but in 2007 he was a -0.7.
Andruw Jones posted a UZR/150+24.9 in 148.2 outfield innings and +25.4 in 39.2 innings at first base. Small sample sizes, I know, but add that to his .214/.323/.459 slash line and .338 wOBA in only 338 plate appearances and you get a +0.8 WAR player. In 2008 he was a dismal -0.9 WAR player but in 2007 he was a +3.6.
Jones, in my opinion, can still play center but would be plus in a corner spot. And he moves to Chicago’s homer prone windy park and he brings his 49.5% flyball rate with him. All these things added up (and hopefully some off field conditioning) and I think the White Sox could have at least a +2.0 WAR player if they give him 500 plate appearances in right field.
-stats from fangraphs.com
Utley Robbed in MVP Voting November 25, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.Tags: Albert Pujols, BBWAA, Chase Utley, Jeremy Affeldt, Matt Holliday, MVP, Philadelphia Phillies
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(Photo by: Chuck Solomon/SI)
Albert Pujols was unanimously named the National League MVP, and rightfully so. He was the most valuable player in the league. The BBWAA voters did a decent job this year of giving the hardware to the right players. Pujols, Joe Mauer, Tim Lincecum, and Zack Greinke were all no-brainers to me and the two rookies of the year (Chris Coghlan and Andrew Bailey) were not bad selections even though they were not my selections. But, where the voters did go wrong was when they tried to quantify the value of Chase Utley, who finished 8th in the NL MVP voting.
Here is the chart from the BBWAA (sorry I couldn’t fit the entire chart here):
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | Points | |
| Albert Pujols, Cardinals | 32 | 448 | |||||||||
| Hanley Ramirez, Marlins | 15 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 233 | |||
| Ryan Howard, Phillies | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 217 | |||
| Prince Fielder, Brewers | 5 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 203 | ||
| Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 172 | |||
| Andre Ethier, Dodgers | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 113 | |||
| Pablo Sandoval, Giants | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 89 | |||
| Chase Utley, Phillies | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 84 | |||
| Derrek Lee, Cubs | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 66 | ||||
| Matt Kemp, Dodgers | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 49 | |||
| Ryan Braun, Brewers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 43 | |||||
| Adrian Gonzalez, Padres | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 30 | |||||
| Todd Helton, Rockies | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 28 | |||||
| Chris Carpenter, Cardinals | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 25 | |||||
| Adam Wainwright, Cards | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | ||||||
| Matt Holliday,Cardinals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | |||||||
| Jayson Werth, Phillies | 1 | 1 | 10 | ||||||||
| Shane Victorino, Phillies | 2 | 8 | |||||||||
| Tim Lincecum, Giants | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |||||||
| Yunel Escobar, Braves | 1 | 6 | |||||||||
| Mark Reynolds, D-backs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |||||||
| Joey Votto, Reds | 1 | 4 | |||||||||
| Yadier Molina, Cardinals | 1 | 3 | |||||||||
| Miguel Tejada, Astros | 1 | 3 | |||||||||
| Huston Street, Rockies | 1 | 2 | |||||||||
| Justin Upton, D-backs | 1 | 2 | |||||||||
| Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
| Jeremy Affeldt, Giants | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Chris Coghlan, Marlins | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Brad Hawpe, Rockies |
As you can see, Utley is not even close in the voting. Granted, no one should be close to the unanimous Pujols, but zero 2nd place votes is simply ridiculous. He was easily 2nd on my imaginary ballot thanks to these overlooked stats: .282/.397/.508 with a wOBA of .402, 31 homers, 23 stolen bases (zero caught stealing), only grounding into 5 double plays, a UZR/150 of +11.3, a fielding percentage of .985, and 7.6 WAR, all while playing a middle infield position. What did those stats get him? Well, he was already snubbed for a Gold Glove award and now he has been completely left off of 14 ballots.
This year the voters have taken a step forward in evaluating players by selecting six deserving players for the major awards. But, they still have a very long way to go when Ryan Howard finishes 3rd, Matt Holliday receives four votes including a 4th place vote, and Jeremy Affeldt is getting votes that Chase Utley should surely be getting first.
-stats from fangraphs.com
Law and Carroll Rock the Vote November 19, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.Tags: Chris Carpenter, Javier Vazquez, Keith Law, NL Cy Young Award, Tim Lincecum, Will Carroll
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The BBWAA announced the National League Cy Young Award winner today. Tim Lincecum narrowly beat out both Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright. Lincecum recieved 11 1st place votes, 12 2nd place, and 9 3rd place (100 total points). Carpenter recieved 9 1st place, 14 2nd place, and 7 3rd place (94 total). Wainwright recieved 12 1st place, 5 2nd place, and 15 3rd place (90 total). That makes 94 votes out of a possible 96 total that went to these three pitchers.
Neither of the two newest voters (the snarky Keith Law of ESPN and Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus) included the Chris Carpenter on their ballots. With Carpenter only finishing 6 points behind Lincecum, there have been some others who are not happy with Law or Carroll for leaving Carpenter off their lists. In place of Carpenter, Law had Javier Vazquez on his ballot (2nd place) and Carroll had Dan Haren on his (3rd).
Even if Carpenter were placed in each of those spots he would have finished in 2nd place, but only 2 points behing Lincecum. And, it’s not like Law’s or Carroll’s picks were unwaranted. Here was my hypothetical ballot from October 6th:
1. Tim Lincecum (SP-SF)
2. Adam Wainwright (SP-STL)
3. Javier Vazquez (SP-ATL)
4. Chris Carpenter (SP-STL)
5. Dan Haren (SP-ARI)
Carpenter would have also been off my ballot of three like Law and Carroll’s. Javier Vazquez went sadly unnoticed by all but Law when all he did was finish 2nd in WAR, 2nd in FIP, 2nd in K/BB, 3rd in K/9, and 4th in BB/9. The reason I believe most voters paid him little to no attention was becuase he had 10 losses, something out of his control.
All-in-all, this was a very good year for the voters. They presented the award to the most deserving pitcher and we finally get some controversy over something that does not include homers voting for their own pitchers that have no business placing a valid ballot. Good job Law and Carroll!
Expect a Bigger Season From Kinsler in 2010 November 17, 2009
Posted by Jonathan C. Mitchell in Baseball.Tags: Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
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Ian Kinsler set some personal milestones in 2009. He set career highs in homers (31), stolen bases (31), WAR (4.6), UZR/150 (+9.6), fielding percentage (.985), games played (144), plate appearances (640), and at-bats (566). A fantastic season by any accounts, even with his slash line of .253/.327/.488 being down from the previous season. Oh, and his 30/30 season was only the third ever by a second baseman (Alfonso Soriano and Brandon Phillips are the other two). Not much room to go up from there, right? Wrong. I will show you why Kinsler is due for bigger and better things.
Kinsler had the lowest BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of any qualifying player in the majors at .245. This number was easily the lowest of any season in Kinsler’s career (.339, .282, 310). This is a big deal. Imagine two hits per month that just happen to fall in and not get caught. This would move his BABIP to .271 and his overall AVG to .274, and that is still a low BABIP according to his career averages.
Another area of Kinsler’s 2009 season that was out of the norm was his LD% (line-drive percentage). In his first three seasons he posted LD% of 20.6, 19.6, and 24.2. In 2009 he posted a LD% of 15.9, 10th lowest in the majors. That is surely a number that Kinsler will bring back to normal in 2010.
Kinsler is about to enter his age 27 season, thought to be the season that most players have their breakout performances. In Kinsler’s case, this will be his 5th season in the majors and he is full healthy. He is also surrounded by a lineup that no pitcher wants to pitch to.
Kinsler didn’t do anything out of the norm to warrant a drop in his BABIP and LD%. His out-of-zone swing percentage was in-line with his career averages and his contact rates were the best of his career while his BB% was exactly the same as his career average of 9.4%.
With all that said, Kinsler should have no problems bringing his BABIP and LD% back to his career norms. If those two things happen, in addition to his continued progress as a player, I see no reason why Kinsler cannot hit at least .285/.370/.525 and go above and beyond another 30/30 season. Add that to the well above-average defense he displayed last season and Kinsler may very well be on his way to an MVP type season. Do not rule it out.
-stats from FanGraphs.com
Jonathan C. Mitchell
Kevin
