Center of the Sports Universe

The BBWAA announced the National League Cy Young Award winner today. Tim Lincecum narrowly beat out both Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright.  Lincecum recieved 11 1st place votes, 12 2nd place, and 9 3rd place (100 total points).  Carpenter recieved 9 1st place, 14 2nd place, and 7 3rd place (94 total).  Wainwright recieved 12 1st place, 5 2nd place, and 15 3rd place (90 total).  That makes 94 votes out of a possible 96 total that went to these three pitchers.

Neither of the two newest voters (the snarky Keith Law of ESPN and Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus) included the Chris Carpenter on their ballots.  With Carpenter only finishing 6 points behind Lincecum, there have been some others who are not happy with Law or Carroll for leaving Carpenter off their lists.  In place of Carpenter, Law had Javier Vazquez on his ballot (2nd place) and Carroll had Dan Haren on his (3rd). 

Even if Carpenter were placed in each of those spots he would have finished in 2nd place, but only 2 points behing Lincecum.  And, it’s not like Law’s or Carroll’s picks were unwaranted.  Here was my hypothetical ballot from October 6th:

1. Tim Lincecum (SP-SF)
2. Adam Wainwright (SP-STL)
3. Javier Vazquez (SP-ATL)
4. Chris Carpenter (SP-STL)
5. Dan Haren (SP-ARI)

Carpenter would have also been off my ballot of three like Law and Carroll’s.  Javier Vazquez went sadly unnoticed by all but Law when all he did was finish 2nd in WAR, 2nd in FIP, 2nd in K/BB, 3rd in K/9, and 4th in BB/9.  The reason I believe most voters paid him little to no attention was becuase he had 10 losses, something out of his control.

All-in-all, this was a very good year for the voters.  They presented the award to the most deserving pitcher and we finally get some controversy over something that does not include homers voting for their own pitchers that have no business placing a valid ballot.  Good job Law and Carroll!

Ian Kinsler set some personal milestones in 2009. He set career highs in homers (31), stolen bases (31), WAR (4.6), UZR/150 (+9.6), fielding percentage (.985), games played (144), plate appearances (640), and at-bats (566). A fantastic season by any accounts, even with his slash line of .253/.327/.488 being down from the previous season. Oh, and his 30/30 season was only the third ever by a second baseman (Alfonso Soriano and Brandon Phillips are the other two). Not much room to go up from there, right? Wrong. I will show you why Kinsler is due for bigger and better things.

Kinsler had the lowest BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of any qualifying player in the majors at .245. This number was easily the lowest of any season in Kinsler’s career (.339, .282, 310). This is a big deal. Imagine two hits per month that just happen to fall in and not get caught. This would move his BABIP to .271 and his overall AVG to .274, and that is still a low BABIP according to his career averages.

Another area of Kinsler’s 2009 season that was out of the norm was his LD% (line-drive percentage). In his first three seasons he posted LD% of 20.6, 19.6, and 24.2. In 2009 he posted a LD% of 15.9, 10th lowest in the majors. That is surely a number that Kinsler will bring back to normal in 2010.

Kinsler is about to enter his age 27 season, thought to be the season that most players have their breakout performances. In Kinsler’s case, this will be his 5th season in the majors and he is full healthy. He is also surrounded by a lineup that no pitcher wants to pitch to.

Kinsler didn’t do anything out of the norm to warrant a drop in his BABIP and LD%. His out-of-zone swing percentage was in-line with his career averages and his contact rates were the best of his career while his BB% was exactly the same as his career average of 9.4%.

With all that said, Kinsler should have no problems bringing his BABIP and LD% back to his career norms. If those two things happen, in addition to his continued progress as a player, I see no reason why Kinsler cannot hit at least .285/.370/.525 and go above and beyond another 30/30 season. Add that to the well above-average defense he displayed last season and Kinsler may very well be on his way to an MVP type season. Do not rule it out.

-stats from FanGraphs.com

The 2009 Gold Glove Award winners have been announced. *Sigh*. I’ve made it known that I believe the Gold Glove Awards are a joke and I know I am not alone. I want to believe that the award will one day actually go to the best fielders. I hold hope. Well, 2009 was not a year the award took a step forward. In fact, it took a step back, which is very hard to do.

Here are all the 2009 winners with my notes on each:

C – Yadier Molina (STL) – This was one of those without-a-doubt winners. There was no other catcher even close to him. He is the best at throwing out runners, blocking balls in the dirt, and one of the best at calling a game. He is also the best at blocking the plate and catching the ball with a runner charging at him like a raging bull. This is one of the few the voters got right, mainly because it was almost impossible to get wrong.

C – Joe Mauer (MIN) – This is not an awful selection but Gerald Laird deserved to win it here. Laird is the best in the AL at throwing runners out and any scout will attest that he is a plus defender behind home plate. The Fielding Bible Awards (which is the real award for fielders in my opinion) also suggests that Laird is the best in the AL. Mauer wins here because the managers tend to look at offensive stats and star names first. Again, Mauer is not a bad selection but Laird deserves to win.

1B – Adrian Gonzalez (SD) – First base is tough here. I can live with Gonzalez but I do think Derek Lee and Albert Pujols were better. Pujols doesn’t get the win due to his 13 errors but he still managed to have a .992 fielding percentage and the most range at the position in the NL. I can flip a coin between the three but I do believe Pujols got robbed here and the Fielding Bible also believes so; he scored a 95 (out of a possible 100) points. The only man that had a chance to win over him was Casey Kotchman, the best fielding first baseman in the game in my opinion, but he did not log enough innings at first for me to warrant giving him the award.

1B – Mark Teixeira (NYY) – Another close call. Tex has incredible hands and plus range. The only better everyday defender at 1B is Kevin Youkilis but he only totaled 647 innings at the position because he was asked to play third for a chunk of the season. Tex only posted a -4.1 UZR/150 as well. Lyle Overbay posted a -0.8 but had the best fielding percentage and the second most assists and should get a mention here.

2B – Orlando Hudson (LAD) – Not even close. Chase Utley, again, gets violently robbed. Utley posted an +11.3 UZR/150 and from scouts that I have talked to he is the best fielding second baseman in the entire league. I have to agree with them. Hudson posted a below average -3.7 UZR/150. Not even close to what Utley did. This is a complete shame and Utley has now been robbed for the fourth and possibly fifth year in a row.

2B – Placido Polanco (DET) – He was voted the winner thanks to only making two errors. While it is important to not throw the ball in the stands and not kick it around it is more important to reach balls out of your zone. Ben Zobrist, in a rare case for me, should get the Gold Glove here. He destroyed everyone in UZR/150 by posting a +30.8 compared to Polanco who had a +11.0, which is Gold Glove caliber. Zobrist loses a little credit due to all the positions he had to play and his lack of innings at the position. I rarely, if ever, vote for a guy with 714 innings at the position but when your UZR/150 is almost three times as high as the second place fielder then you deserve some credit. Oh, and I saw him play almost all 714 innings and his range and arm are plus there, no doubt.

3B – Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) – He deserves this. Plus arm, plus hands, plus range. His UZR/150 of +20.1 is almost double the second best NL third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff at +10.7.

3B – Evan Longoria (TB) – A solid selection here but one can make an argument for Adrian Beltre. Longoria posted a UZR/150 of +19.2 and Beltre posted a +21.0 but Longoria gets the slight nod due to having a better arm and the best range and hands of any third baseman in the league. The Fielding Bible had Beltre at 76 points and Longoria at 75, for what it’s worth. A very close call here by all accounts.

SS – Jimmy Rollins (PHI) – This is almost laughable. Troy Tulowitzki, Rafael Furcal, Brendan Ryan, and J.J. Hardy were all better at short. Tulowitki’s metrics don’t match what scouts say and what I’ve seen of him. Ryan has the best UZR/150 of +13.8 with Furcal at +8.5 and Hardy at +8.8. Tulo only posted a -0.9 so I have to discredit him some there but he did have the second most assists and putouts, not to mention the best range of any shortstop in the NL and a cannon of an arm. Rollins had a +2.9, which is a far cry from the Ryan, Furcal, or Hardy. The Fielding Bible gave the award to Jack Wilson (who posted a major league best +20.4 UZR/150) but he spilt time between the two leagues and didn’t log close to enough innings to give him the award. Tulowitzki was 2nd in the FB, losing by one point to Wilson.

SS – Derek Jeter (NYY) – Geez! This again. His range is poor. His arm strength is below-average. He looks bad on balls in front of him and to either side. Cesar Izturis posted a +14.1 UZR/150, Adam Everett a +13.6, and Elvis Andrus a +11.7. Jeter had a solid +8.4 but he is not match for any of the three mentioned above. This is another case where the managers looked at offensive numbers and notoriety first. The Fielding Bible had Jeter ranked 8th among AL shortstops with 3 points. Andrus was first among AL shortstops at 69 points.

OF – Michael Bourn (HOU), Matt Kemp (LAD), Shane Victorino (PHI) – Let me start by stating that I hate how the award isn’t divided among all three outfield positions. Why does the infield get divided and not the outfield? Makes zero sense to me. Anyway… Bourn is a solid selection here. He has incredible wheels, great range, and a decent arm. His UZR/150 is +8.7 with 11 assists and the Fielding Bible had him as the highest rated NL centerfielder with 40 points. Kemp posted a + 3.2 but only received 12 points in the FB but does have the best arm of any centerfielder and had 14 assists. Victorino is another laughable selection. He has poor range, makes bad judgment calls on balls hit in front of him, a weak arm, and only gets credit because he dives for balls even though most centerfielders would be camped under them. His UZR/150 is -4.2 and he received 14 points in the FB. Better selections would have been Nyjer Morgan (+35.8 and 13 assists), Randy Winn (+20.1 and no errors), Tony Gwynn (+19.4), and Hunter Pence (+5.3 and 16 assists).

OF – Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Torii Hunter (LAA), Adam Jones (BAL) – The AL winners consist of two guys that received their 9th award in a row and one first time winner. Ichiro posted a +11.3 UZR/150 with 5 assists and 93 Fielding Bible points, Hunter a -2.1 with 2 assists and 25 FB points, and Jones -4.1 with 9 assists and 2 FB points. I am unsure as to how the managers chose Jones. I know exactly why they chose Ichiro and Hunter, although there were many better selections. Franklin Gutierrez had a +27.1 UZR150 with 6 assists, 97 points in the Fielding Bible, and possibly the most range of any player in the game. Carl Crawford had a +17.5 with 6 assists and had 99 points in the Fielding Bible. Of the 10 voters, 9 gave Crawford first place votes and one gave him a second place vote. He is by far the best defensive leftfielder and has now won 3 of 4 Fielding Bible Awards and no Gold Gloves. What a shame! Ryan Sweeney posted a +27.6 and 11 assists and 60 FB points. David DeJesus had a +15.1, 13 assists, no errors, and 68 FB points (thanks to Crawford). Rajai Davis had a +16.2, 8 assists, and 42 FB points. Juan Rivera had a +15.0 with 11 assists and 65 FB points.

P – Adam Wainwright (STL) – I would’ve taken teammate Joel Pineiro and Johan Santana over Wainwright. He makes all the right plays but he is not a Gold Glover.

P – Mark Buehrle (CHW) – The right choice here. He is the best fielding pitcher in the AL, hands down. He is great at holding runners and picking them off too.

So, with all that said, here are my selections for the Gold Glove Awards:

C – Yadier Molina (NL)
C – Gerald Laird (AL)
1B – Albert Pujols (NL)
1B – Mark Teixeira (AL)
2B – Chase Utley (NL)
2B – Ben Zobrist (AL)
3B – Ryan Zimmerman (NL)
3B – Evan Longoria (AL)
SS – Troy Tulowitzki (NL)
SS – Adam Everett (AL)
OF – Nyjer Morgan (NL), Hunter Pence (NL), Michael Bourn (NL)
OF – Franklin Gutirrez (AL), Carl Crawford (AL), Ryan Sweeney (AL)
P – Joel Pineiro (NL)
P – Mark Buehrle (AL)

As you can see, I only agreed with 6 out of 18 of the selections that the voters made. While some of the selections were decent and not far off there were far too many that were purely laughable and simply had zero thought when they were voted for. It’s time for MLB to re-evaluate the Gold Glove voting process and take it out of the hands of the managers and into the hands of the scouting directors.

(AP Photo/Tom Olmscheid)

Below are my selections for the 2009 awards in Major League Baseball.  I added stats my winners to clarify why I chose them and I also included some stats on some players that may make you scratch your head.  Agree or disagree, these are my awards:

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols (1B-STL) – 1st in HR, XBH, WAR, OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA.
2. Chase Utley (2B-PHI)
3. Hanley Ramirez (SS-FLA)
4. Prince Fielder (1B-MIL)
5. Troy Tulowitzki (SS-COL)
6. Ryan Zimmerman (3B-WAS)
7. Matt Kemp (OF-LAD)
8. Adrian Gonzalez (1B-SD)
9. Derek Lee (1B-CHC)
10. Ryan Braun (OF-MIL)

AL MVP

1. Joe Mauer (C-MIN) – 2nd in WAR, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and plays toughest position in the game.
2. Ben Zobrist (2B-TB) – 1st in WAR, 4th in OBP, OPS, 2nd in fielding value.
3. Miguel Cabrera (1B-DET)
4. Zack Greinke (SP-KC)
5. Derek Jeter (SS-NYY)
6. Mark Teixeira (1B-NYY)
7. Evan Longoria (3B-TB)
8. Kevin Youkilis (1B-BOS)
9. Chone Figgins (3B-LAA)
10. Adam Lind (OF-TOR)

NL Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum (SP-SF) – 1st in WAR, FIP, SO, and K/9, tied for 1st in CG and SHO, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in IP
2. Adam Wainwright (SP-STL)
3. Javier Vazquez (SP-ATL) – 2nd in WAR, FIP, and K/BB, 3rd in K/9, 4th in BB/9
4. Chris Carpenter (SP-STL)
5. Dan Haren (SP-ARI)
6. Matt Cain (SP-SF)
7. Jonathan Broxton (RP-LAD) – 76 IP, 114/29 K/BB, 1.97 FIP, 2.61 ERA, .165/.247/.232 against, 0.96 WHIP, 1st in WAR among relievers.
8. Jair Jurrjens (SP-ATL)
9. Josh Johnson (SP-FLA)
10. Ubaldo Jimenez (SP-COL)

AL Cy Young

1. Zack Greinke (SP-KC) – 1st in WAR, ERA, FIP, WHIP, OBP, 2nd in K, CG, SHO, and K/BB.
2. Roy Halladay (SP-TOR) – 1st in K/BB, CG, SHO, BB/9, and P/IP, 2nd in IP and OBP, 3rd in WAR, ERA, and FIP.
3. Felix Hernandez (SP-SEA) – 1st in BAA and SLG, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in IP, WHIP, 4th in FIP and WAR.
4. Justin Verlander (SP-DET)
5. Jon Lester (SP-BOS)
6. C.C. Sabathia (SP-NYY)
7. Josh Beckett (SP-BOS)
8. Jered Weaver (SP-LAA)
9. Edwin Jackson (SP-DET)
10. Mariano Rivera (RP-NYY)

NL Rookie Of the Year

1. Andrew McCutchen (OF-PIT) – 1st in WAR (among rookies) and just read this for more on him.
2. Chris Coghlan (OF-FLA)
3. Tommy Hanson (SP-ATL)
4. J.A. Happ (SP-PHI)
5. Garrett Jones (OF-PIT)
6. Randy Wells (SP-CHC)
7. Casey McGehee (3B-MIL)

AL Rookie Of the Year

1. Brett Anderson (SP-OAK) – 1st in WAR among all AL rookies, 175 IP, 3.69 FIP (8th in the AL), 150/45 K/BB.
2. Elvis Andrus (SS-TEX)
3. Andrew Bailey (RP-OAK)
4. Jeff Niemann (SP-TB)
5. Rick Porcello (SP-DET)
6. Nolan Reimold (OF-BAL)
7. Gordon Beckham (3B-CHW)

NL Manager Of the Year

1. Jim Tracy (COL)
2. Tony LaRussa (STL)
3. Fredi Gonzalez (FLA)

AL Manager Of the Year

1. Mike Scioscia (LAA)
2. Ron Washington (TEX)
3. Ron Gardenhire (MIN)

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

The Pittsburgh Pirates avoided the dreaded 100 loss plateau this year partially thanks to a rained out game that will not be made up against the Chicago Cubs, leaving them with 99 losses on the season. At this point, who cares anymore? They have 17 consecutive losing seasons and there is nothing to chear about when you lose 99 games. The Pirates’ offense ranks last in the NL in runs (16th), 15th in SLUG, 14th in AVG, 14th in OBP, and 14th in OPS. Is there hope in the future? I think so, and hope’s name is Andrew McCutchen.

McCutchen, the 11th overall pick in the historic 2005 draft, looked like a potential star when I saw him in Spring Training. He hit .286/.365/.471 with an OPS+ of 124, a wOBA of .368, 12 homers, 26 doubles, 9 triples, 22 steals, and 54 walks, and he only grounded into 3 double plays in 433 at-bats in his 2009 rookie season at the tender age of 22.

On defense, McCutchen was gunning runners down in center too with 10 outfield assists and only 2 errors. His UZR/150 was -0.5 but he actually plays a stellar centerfield and should consistently post positive UZR/150 ratings.

Fangraphs has McCutchen’s 2009 production value at $15.8M while only making the league minimum and not qualifying for the batting title due to lack of plate appearances.

The bottom line is that McCutchen is going to be a star. His rookie season was even better than it appears. Among centerfielders with at least 475 plate appearances he ranks 2nd in wOBA behind Matt Kemp, 3rd in OPS behind Torii Hunter and Kemp, and 3rd in outfield assists.

In a full season, McCutchen will be what B.J. Upton should be, annually hitting 20+ homers, stealing 35+ bases, posting OPS’s over .850, playing above-average defense in center, and playing in All-Star games. This kid is a star in the making and Pittsburgh has the player to build a contender around and hope for the future.